[Executive Summary]

1. Overview & Valuation

• Deal Overview: Scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 (Ticker: SPCX). With an IPO price of $135 per share and approximately 555.6 million shares issued, the total offering size is projected to reach around $75 billion, breaking the record for the largest IPO in history ahead of Saudi Aramco.
• Valuation: Post-IPO enterprise value is estimated at $1.75T to $1.8T, securing a definite spot in the global Top 10 by market capitalization.
• Market Evaluation: Defined not merely as an aerospace sector listing, but as the emergence of a Deep Tech platform and a monopoly ruler of the “Space Economy” infrastructure market.

2. Key Investment Highlights

• Business Areas: Connectivity(Starlink), Space(Launch & Exploration), AI(xAI Integration)
• Starlink’s Strong Cash Flow: Serving as the primary cash cow, it generates over 60% of total revenue. It secures robust recurring revenue momentum with global subscribers surpassing 10 million (across 155 countries) in 2026 and plans to deploy space-based AI data centers by 2028.
• Launch Market Dominance & Tech Ecosystem: Achieving overwhelming cost competitiveness through the reusable technology of the Falcon series and Starship, backed by core order backlogs from government agencies like NASA and the U.S. Space Force. Synergies with xAI and partnerships with major Big Tech firms (Google, Anthropic, etc.) highlight its unique platform value combining space communication infrastructure with High-Performance Computing (HPC).
• Surging Demand & Liquidity Momentum: Institutional roadshows have already attracted over $150 billion in orders, recording a massive oversubscription. With retail allocation expanded to 30%, strong upward momentum is expected in the early stages of listing.

3. Risk Factors & Valuation Burdens

• Valuation Overshooting: Based on 2025 earnings ($18B–$20B), the trailing P/S ratio reaches 70–90x, indicating premium valuation pressures (some conservative institutions estimate its intrinsic value at around $780 billion).
• Extreme Liquidity Constraints & Regulatory Risks: The public float is limited to only about 4% of total shares, raising concerns over extreme stock price volatility due to early supply-demand mismatches. Additionally, risks include potential commercialization delays of Starship, tightening global space traffic and environmental regulations, and rising costs from orbital competition (e.g., Amazon Kuiper).

4. Investment Strategy & Implications

• Paradigm Shift to the Space Economy: The SpaceX IPO marks a crucial turning point that drastically expands global capital accessibility to the “Space Economy,” a sector previously restricted for institutional investors, positioning the company as a core anchor capturing the next-generation mega-trend.
• Space Infrastructure Platform Company: SpaceX has evolved beyond a mere launch provider into a core space economy infrastructure operator that integrates satellite communications (Starlink), deep space logistics (Starship), and AI computing (xAI). Consequently, a multi-faceted valuation based on platforms and AI is applied, rather than traditional metrics.
• Long-Term Strategic Monitoring: Rather than getting caught up in short-term market volatility, investors should closely monitor the growth trajectory of the Starlink business (subscriber acquisition speed and AI infrastructure integration) to precisely calibrate entry points and review portfolio inclusion from a macro perspective.